Mundo Deportivo: The World Cup accounts for 57% of the Ballon d'Or winner, making this year's ultimate winner difficult to predict.

According to Diario Sport, the World Cup often determines the winner of the Ballon d'Or, especially in World Cup years.

Football history is replete with examples demonstrating the weight of the World Cup in the selection of the world's best player. For instance, after the Qatar World Cup, Messi beat Haaland, despite the latter having already won the treble with Guardiola's Manchester City. Cannavaro and Modric are also well-known examples; both went on to win the Ballon d'Or based on their outstanding performances at the World Cup.

Contrary to popular belief, the official Ballon d'Or account once analyzed the relationship between Ballon d'Or winners and World Cup titles in an article, showing that the World Cup title is not always the decisive factor. Since France Football expanded the award globally in 1995, allowing players of any nationality to compete, the World Cup champion has only won the Ballon d'Or 57% of the time.

In 1998, Zinedine Zidane won the Ballon d'Or based on his outstanding performance and World Cup victory. The same was true for Ronaldo in 2002 and Fabio Cannavaro in 2006. However, the trend reversed in 2010, with Lionel Messi beating Xavi and Andres Iniesta to win the award, based on his superior season performance, despite Spain winning the World Cup and the Argentine failing to score in South Africa. The same was true in 2014, when Cristiano Ronaldo, despite being eliminated in the group stage of the World Cup in Brazil, won the award thanks to his 17 Champions League goals. Four years later, Luka Modric unexpectedly won the Ballon d'Or, having won the Champions League with Real Madrid and led Croatia to the World Cup final, but ultimately failing to lift the trophy.

Therefore, considering that Messi continued the trend of the World Cup winning favoring the Ballon d'Or winner in 2022, in the seven tournaments since then, the Ballon d'Or has been won by the World Cup champion four times. In other words, in 57% of cases, the World Cup influences the award's outcome.

This year's Ballon d'Or winner is difficult to predict, as many players have presented their own reasons for competing, but none have a clear lead. Potential winners include Harry Kane, Yamal, Messi, Mbappe, and Ousmane Dembélé, but Rodri could also pull off another upset, repeating his 2024 performance.